Ethnic groups
Sub-groups (updated 8 Nov 2026). The census does not count sub-groups ward by ward, so the sub-group maps are estimates placed by home area: each home constituency (or ward, where the ward carries a clan name) gets its own sub-groups, settlement areas get broad blends, and people living away from home areas get an average mix, which the map leaves grey. Sub-group figures on the map (labels and colour depth) are shares of everyone living there, not of the family alone: Mt Elgon shows Bukusu 12%, being 95% of the 13% who are Luhya. Where no sub-group reaches 45% of the family (Trans Nzoia, Lugari, Likuyani, Tongaren, Kitale and other towns) the map says Mixed instead of guessing. Checked against the 2019 census: where most people named their sub-group, the national totals are matched to the census shares while keeping the geography: Kalenjin (Kipsigis 40%, Nandi 20%, Pokot 13% against 16% in the census, Sabaot 6%, Tugen 8%, Keiyo 7%, Marakwet 4%), Mijikenda and Coastal (Giriama 37%, Duruma 20%, Digo 15%, Chonyi 7%, Rabai 5%, Pokomo 4%, Bajuni 3%, Swahili 3%), the Borana bloc (Borana 37%, Orma 19%, Gabra 18%, Rendille 12%) and Somali clans (Ogaden 32%, Garre 27%, Degodia 23%, Ajuran 8%, Murulle 6%). Luhya cannot be matched that way: 3.94 million of 6.82 million answered only "Luhya", so the census-named counts are floors. Every Luhya sub-group is kept at or above its named count; Bukusu come to 29% of Luhya, between the named floor (17%) and the share among those who named a sub-group (42%), which is what Bungoma and Trans Nzoia's population supports. Kakamega's sub-groups (Wanga, Idakho, Marama, Kisa) sit well above their named counts because most people there answered "Luhya". Meru (with Tharaka raised to the census 220,000), Maasai sections and Luo and Gusii clans are not split in the census and stay as home-area estimates.
Census check (2019) · the model's totals against the Kenya census, on 2019 populations
Communities: the model's ward mixes, weighted by each ward's 2019 census population, against KNBS ethnic affiliation. Every listed community is matched to within a few percent except Kikuyu (held at the user's ~17% for 2027) and the northern bloc (short by about 7%, mostly Orma in Tana River). The census's 1.93% outside the listed groups compares with the model's “other”.
| Community | Model | Share | Census | Share | Model / census |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kikuyu held at ~17% for 2027 (user target) | 7.93M | 16.67% | 8.15M | 17.13% | 97% |
| Luhya | 6.83M | 14.35% | 6.82M | 14.35% | 100% |
| Kalenjin | 6.29M | 13.22% | 6.36M | 13.37% | 99% |
| Luo/Suba Luo + Suba | 5.22M | 10.98% | 5.22M | 10.98% | 100% |
| Kamba | 4.70M | 9.87% | 4.66M | 9.81% | 101% |
| Somali | 2.78M | 5.85% | 2.78M | 5.85% | 100% |
| Coastal Mijikenda, Swahili, Pokomo, Bajuni | 2.74M | 5.76% | 2.75M | 5.78% | 100% |
| Kisii | 2.70M | 5.68% | 2.70M | 5.68% | 100% |
| Meru Meru + Tharaka | 2.20M | 4.62% | 2.20M | 4.62% | 100% |
| Maasai/Samburu Maasai + Samburu | 1.54M | 3.24% | 1.52M | 3.20% | 101% |
| Turkana | 1.03M | 2.16% | 1.02M | 2.14% | 101% |
| Other / mixed everyone outside the listed groups | 1.22M | 2.56% | 918k | 1.93% | 133% |
| Borana/Gabra/Rendille/Orma Borana, Gabra, Rendille, Orma, Burji, Sakuye, Daasanach, El Molo | 702k | 1.48% | 757k | 1.59% | 93% |
| Embu/Mbeere Embu + Mbeere | 600k | 1.26% | 600k | 1.26% | 100% |
| Teso | 418k | 0.88% | 418k | 0.88% | 100% |
| Taita/Taveta Taita + Taveta | 361k | 0.76% | 371k | 0.78% | 97% |
| Kuria | 314k | 0.66% | 314k | 0.66% | 100% |
Sub-groups: model totals against the people who named that sub-group in the census. Where most named one (Kalenjin 76%, Mijikenda 98%, Somali 79%, northern bloc), the model's shares are matched to the census shares; Pokot stay a little under because the home-area mapping cannot place more of them. Luhya are kept at or above every named count.
| Sub-group | Model | Share | Census named | Share of named |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luhya · census: 2.88M named a sub-group (3.94M of 6.82M answered only “Luhya”, so named counts are floors) | ||||
| Bukusu | 1.96M | 28.7% | 1.19M | 41.6% |
| Maragoli | 718k | 10.5% | 335k | 11.7% |
| Bunyala (Busia) + Nyala (Kakamega) | 314k | 4.6% | 227k | 8.0% |
| Banyore | 444k | 6.5% | 155k | 5.4% |
| Kabras | 427k | 6.3% | 137k | 4.8% |
| Isukha | 363k | 5.3% | 102k | 3.6% |
| Wanga | 468k | 6.9% | 94k | 3.3% |
| Tiriki | 285k | 4.2% | 93k | 3.3% |
| Tachoni | 359k | 5.3% | 86k | 3.0% |
| Samia | 175k | 2.6% | 85k | 3.0% |
| Batsotso | 183k | 2.7% | 73k | 2.5% |
| Khayo | 215k | 3.2% | 69k | 2.4% |
| Marachi | 224k | 3.3% | 66k | 2.3% |
| Idakho | 270k | 4.0% | 55k | 1.9% |
| Marama | 225k | 3.3% | 43k | 1.5% |
| Kisa | 182k | 2.7% | 35k | 1.2% |
| Batura | 18k | 0.3% | 13k | 0.5% |
| Kalenjin · census: 4.81M named a sub-group | ||||
| Kipsigis | 2.50M | 39.8% | 1.91M | 39.7% |
| Nandi | 1.23M | 19.6% | 938k | 19.5% |
| Pokot | 879k | 14.0% | 778k | 16.2% |
| Tugen | 504k | 8.0% | 327k | 6.8% |
| Sabaot | 385k | 6.1% | 296k | 6.2% |
| Keiyo | 385k | 6.1% | 251k | 5.2% |
| Marakwet | 279k | 4.4% | 213k | 4.4% |
| Ogiek | 69k | 1.1% | 53k | 1.1% |
| Terik | 31k | 0.5% | 23k | 0.5% |
| Sengwer | 25k | 0.4% | 19k | 0.4% |
| Mijikenda & Coastal · census: 2.71M named a sub-group | ||||
| Giriama | 1.02M | 37.1% | 1.01M | 37.2% |
| Duruma | 559k | 20.4% | 555k | 20.5% |
| Digo | 413k | 15.1% | 410k | 15.1% |
| Chonyi | 200k | 7.3% | 199k | 7.3% |
| Rabai | 127k | 4.6% | 126k | 4.6% |
| Pokomo | 113k | 4.1% | 112k | 4.1% |
| Bajuni | 92k | 3.4% | 91k | 3.4% |
| Kauma | 64k | 2.3% | 71k | 2.6% |
| Swahili | 75k | 2.7% | 56k | 2.1% |
| Jibana | 39k | 1.4% | 38k | 1.4% |
| Kambe | 31k | 1.1% | 31k | 1.1% |
| Ribe | 11k | 0.4% | 11k | 0.4% |
| Borana bloc · census: 757k named a sub-group | ||||
| Borana | 251k | 35.7% | 276k | 36.5% |
| Orma | 144k | 20.6% | 159k | 21.0% |
| Gabra | 128k | 18.3% | 141k | 18.6% |
| Rendille | 88k | 12.5% | 96k | 12.7% |
| Burji | 34k | 4.8% | 37k | 4.9% |
| Sakuye | 25k | 3.5% | 27k | 3.6% |
| Daasanach | 13k | 1.9% | 19k | 2.6% |
| El Molo | 1k | 0.1% | 1k | 0.1% |
| Somali clans · census: 2.20M named a sub-group | ||||
| Ogaden | 923k | 33.2% | 698k | 31.9% |
| Garre | 744k | 26.8% | 602k | 27.5% |
| Degodia | 653k | 23.5% | 516k | 23.6% |
| Ajuran | 231k | 8.3% | 182k | 8.3% |
| Murulle | 149k | 5.3% | 139k | 6.4% |
| Corner tribes | 51k | 1.9% | 41k | 1.9% |
| Isaaq | 6k | 0.2% | 7k | 0.3% |
| Hawiye (other) | 16k | 0.6% | 4k | 0.2% |
These are model estimates, not census counts. Each ward's mix starts from the 2019 census (county and sub-county figures), is placed within the county using the 2009 ward pattern, local knowledge and place names, and is then adjusted so the ward's 2022 vote is reproduced. People are the 2027 population projection; registered voters are the 2027 estimate built from IEBC's April 2026 register. Small groups are folded into "Other / mixed".