Kenya 2027, from 46,000 polling streams up.
One model, twelve ways to read it. Start with the snapshot, where every candidate runs separately. Scenarios A–D test the alliances being talked about; F–L are MOASS's own reading of where the race is heading. Each page covers the presidency and parliament, down to wards and polling stations.
All twelve at a glance
Ruto's side counts UDA, ODM and their allies. A first-round win needs over 50% and 25% in at least 24 counties. Every page includes Ruto's incumbency advantage in state-aligned remote counties.
| Page | Ruto's side | Main challenger | Outcome | National Assembly, Ruto's side | Senate, Ruto's side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SnapshotThe race as it stands | 50.97% | Gachagua 20.1% | First round | 223 of 337 | 37 of 47 |
| Alliance tests: the tickets being discussed | |||||
| Scenario ARuto–Kindiki vs Kalonzo–Sifuna | 52.45% | Kalonzo–Sifuna 39.5% | First round | 229 of 337 | 37 of 47 |
| Scenario BRuto–Kalonzo vs Sifuna–Gachagua | 57.22% | Sifuna–Gachagua 37.6% | First round | 236 of 337 | 36 of 47 |
| Scenario CRuto–Oparanya vs Kalonzo–Sifuna | 51.10% | Kalonzo–Sifuna 41.0% | First round | 227 of 337 | 34 of 47 |
| Scenario DRuto–Kalonzo vs Sifuna–Methu | 57.77% | Sifuna–Methu 34.7% | First round | 237 of 337 | 37 of 47 |
| MOASS's own reads of the race (late Oct 2026) | |||||
| Scenario FRuto–Kindiki vs Kalonzo–Gachagua vs Sifuna | 50.74% | Kalonzo–Gachagua 29.4% | First round | 223 of 337 | 37 of 47 |
| Scenario GRuto–Kindiki vs Gachagua–Matiang'i vs Kalonzo vs Sifuna | 50.55% | Gachagua–Matiang'i 21.1% | First round | 223 of 337 | 37 of 47 |
| Scenario HRuto–Kindiki vs Matiang'i–Karua vs Kalonzo vs Sifuna | 48.87% | Matiang'i–Karua 21.0% | Runoff | 211 of 337 | 36 of 47 |
| Scenario IRuto–Kindiki vs Kalonzo–Sifuna (everyone) | 53.29% | Kalonzo–Sifuna 42.5% | First round | 229 of 337 | 36 of 47 |
| Scenario JODM splits: Sifuna takes the base | 46.02% | Kalonzo–Gachagua 28.1% | Runoff | 189 of 337 | 33 of 47 |
| Scenario KRuto–Wanga vs Kalonzo–Gachagua vs Sifuna | 50.44% | Kalonzo–Gachagua 30.6% | First round | 212 of 337 | 34 of 47 |
| Scenario LRuto–Joho vs Kalonzo–Gachagua vs Sifuna | 48.78% | Kalonzo–Gachagua 31.0% | Runoff | 211 of 337 | 34 of 47 |
Open a page
Each card shows the top four in the presidential race.
The race as it stands
Every candidate runs separately. All six races, from polling stations up.
Ruto–Kindiki vs Kalonzo–Sifuna
Ruto–Kindiki backed by the broad-based camp; Kalonzo–Sifuna backed by Gachagua.
Ruto–Kalonzo vs Sifuna–Gachagua
Ruto–Kalonzo backed by the broad-based camp; Sifuna–Gachagua backed by Matiang'i.
Ruto–Oparanya vs Kalonzo–Sifuna
Ruto picks ODM's Oparanya; Kalonzo–Sifuna backed by Gachagua, with Kindiki crossing over.
Ruto–Kalonzo vs Sifuna–Methu
Kalonzo deputises Ruto; Senator Methu runs with Sifuna as the Gachagua camp's proxy.
MOASS's own reads
Seven scenarios from MOASS's reading of the race in late October 2026: the opposition has promised one flagbearer by Christmas, Sifuna has launched Linda Mwananchi and polls show most ODM supporters with his camp, Oburu's ODM wing is staying with Ruto, and Nyoro runs on PPK. K and L keep F's opposition and change only Ruto's running mate. Kalonzo deputises nobody but Ruto, so he stays at the top of a ticket or runs alone.
Ruto–Kindiki vs Kalonzo–Gachagua vs Sifuna
The united opposition names Kalonzo, with Gachagua and Matiang'i behind him; Sifuna runs alone on Linda Mwananchi.
Ruto–Kindiki vs Gachagua–Matiang'i vs Kalonzo vs Sifuna
The opposition fails to agree: Gachagua runs with Matiang'i, Kalonzo runs alone on Wiper, Sifuna runs alone.
Ruto–Kindiki vs Matiang'i–Karua vs Kalonzo vs Sifuna
Uhuru's pick: Matiang'i with Martha Karua, backed by Gachagua's camp; Kalonzo and Sifuna each run alone.
Ruto–Kindiki vs Kalonzo–Sifuna (everyone)
The whole opposition, Gachagua, Matiang'i and Nyoro included, unites behind Kalonzo with Sifuna as running mate.
ODM splits: Sifuna takes the base
Sifuna carries most of ODM's base (Luo, Coast, Teso) out of the broad-based camp; Kalonzo–Gachagua lead the united opposition.
Ruto–Wanga vs Kalonzo–Gachagua vs Sifuna
Ruto drops Kindiki for a Luo running mate from ODM (Wanga, or Mbadi); opposition as in F.
Ruto–Joho vs Kalonzo–Gachagua vs Sifuna
Ruto drops Kindiki for Hassan Joho of Mombasa; opposition as in F.
How to use the map
How the model works
Built from polling stations
27,187 centres and 45,931 streams. Each carries its IEBC 2022 register and Form 34A turnout; the 2027 register is IEBC's latest (24.7 million, April 2026) and 2027 turnout falls by each county's own trend since 2013, about 5 points on average.
Ward by ward
Each of 1,450 wards has an estimated community mix, calibrated to its 2022 vote, plus local alignments. Wards add up to constituencies, counties and the national result.
Scenarios move votes, not just labels
A presidential candidate locks in his own community (95%); a running mate lifts his by about 5 points. Endorsing camps transfer most, not all, of their other voters.