The trend
Dots are individual polls; lines join each candidate's polls in date order. "Decided voters" removes undecided and no-answer responses so polls with different undecided rates can be compared.
Recent average
Mean of the last five polls, decided voters only (candidates not offered in a poll are skipped).
Ruto
40.2%
MOASS snapshot: 50.97%
Sifuna
24.9%
MOASS snapshot: 15.02%
Kalonzo
14.9%
MOASS snapshot: 9.08%
Matiang'i
10.0%
MOASS snapshot: below top four
Gachagua
6.3%
MOASS snapshot: 20.06%
Why polls and MOASS differ
Undecided votersBetween 5% and 29% of respondents name no one. On election day most of them vote, and they don't break evenly.
No alliances yetPolls list every hopeful separately. On the ballot there will be a handful of tickets, and endorsements move votes in blocs.
Who turns outPolls sample adults; MOASS weights each ward by its registered voters and its own turnout history, which favours high-turnout regions.
All polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork and method | Ruto | Sifuna | Kalonzo | Matiang'i | Gachagua | Undecided / no answer | Notes and sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIFA released 12 Nov 2026 | 26 Oct–5 Nov 2026 n=2,036 · Face-to-face, ±2.16% | 31 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 19 | Standard Household face-to-face sample, nine regions. Measures preferred winner, not intention to vote. Undecided 15% + no answer 4%. By party: ODM supporters Ruto 42%, Sifuna 33%; DCP supporters Sifuna 34%, Gachagua 25%; Jubilee supporters Matiang'i 57%. Among Ruto backers, 55% prefer Kindiki as running mate (Wanga 12%, Joho 9%). |
| Research 8020 released 25 Oct 2026 | Sep 2026 n=3,760 · Interviews, all 47 counties | 26 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | Caution Reported figures don't add up (a 69% 'other' line); Sifuna's 25% is inferred from the reported one-point gap. Treat with caution. |
| Politrack Africa released 1 Oct 2026 | 15–25 Sep 2026 n=20,419 · Text-message panel, ±3% | 45.1 | 19.6 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | Caution Opt-in mobile/text panel, not a probability sample: large n but self-selected. |
| Mizani Africa released 25 Sep 2026 | Not published Not published | 38.7 | 13.2 | 27.5 | 7.7 | – | 5 | Caution Method and sample not published. |
| Bobea Report released 8 Sep 2026 | 26 Aug–2 Sep 2026 Random street/household sampling, ±3.1% | 35.2 | 19.1 | 9 | 14 | – | 22.7 | Standard Newer pollster; sample size not reported. Includes 5% who would not vote. |
| TIFA released 24 Jul 2026 | 13–22 Jun 2026 n=2,048 · Face-to-face, ±2.18% | 24 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 20 | Standard Household face-to-face sample, all 47 counties. |
| Infotrak released 13 Jul 2026 | Not reported Not reported in coverage | 32 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 21 | Standard Infotrak usually polls by phone (CATI); method not restated in coverage. |
| TIFA released 14 May 2026 | 2–11 May 2026 n=2,013 · Face-to-face, ±2.18% | 24 | 10 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 18 | Standard Household face-to-face sample, all nine zones. |
| Infotrak released 28 Dec 2025 | 19–20 Dec 2025 n=1,000 · Phone (CATI), ±3.1% | 28 | 0.2 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 29 | Standard Before Sifuna's bid: he was barely offered as an option. |
| Mizani Africa released 11 Dec 2025 | Not published Not published | 46.2 | – | 18.5 | 15.9 | 6.1 | 10.1 | Caution Method and sample not published. Sifuna not offered. |
Figures are % of all respondents as reported in the press coverage linked. "–" means the candidate wasn't offered or reported.
County snapshots
Smaller Mizani Africa polls of a single county or constituency, posted on X.
Nyeri County: presidential preference
Mizani Africa · Dec 2025
Gachagua 25.5% · Ruto 20.3%
Kuria East: party preference
Mizani Africa · Sep 2025
UDA 38.1% · ODM 19.9% · DCP 15.0%
County, Senate, women rep and MP polls are on the Races page.
Left out
- Politrack Africa online head-to-head (Jul 2026): Sifuna 56.3%, Ruto 43.7%: Open online vote of 123,110 participants, not a sample; the publisher says so itself. Source
- Viral constituency 'polls' attributed to Mizani Africa or TIFA (e.g. Likoni, Rongo, Kakamega, Bungoma): Disowned by the pollsters and fact-checked as fake. Source